From Okra to Oranges: The Unexpected Future of British Agriculture

4 mins

A new study suggests that by 2080, warmer temperatures could reshape UK agriculture, making it suitable for crops that could turn locally made hummus and marmalade into supermarket staples

A warmer future might bring some surprising changes to what’s growing in the UK. According to a recent study by the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH) in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, climate change could drastically transform British agriculture by 2080.

The study analysed 167 different crops, looking into the ideal conditions for each, including soil types, temperature, and rainfall, and projected what might happen as temperatures rise by 2°C or even 4°C above pre-industrial levels.

The results were a mix of challenges and opportunities. Warmer weather might turn parts of the UK into unexpected hotspots for crops like oranges, okra, chickpeas, soybeans, and durum wheat, staples more commonly associated with Mediterranean climates.

man holding okra - a vegetable that could become a staple of British agriculture by 2028

Regions like southwest England, Wales, and parts of Scotland could see these crops thriving in ways that were never possible before.

‘Our climate is expected to change substantially over coming decades at a time when there will be rising demand for food due to population growth,’ John Redhead, a spatial ecologist at UKCEH, said in a statement. ‘It is therefore essential that arable farming becomes more resilient; one possible solution is growing different crops that are more suited to the new local conditions.’

According to the study, expanding the variety of crops and diversifying local agriculture could enhance soil health and naturally improve pest and disease control.

Additionally, the strong potential for growing protein-rich crops like soybeans and chickpeas offers a chance to lower meat consumption and its associated emissions.

Agriculture Challenges

But it’s not all good news. Some of the UK’s most iconic crops, like strawberries, could struggle as conditions change. Shifting rainfall patterns, heatwaves, and even soil quality could make it harder for these traditional crops to flourish. While oranges and okra might sound like fun additions to your future garden, they won’t come without challenges.

One important takeaway from the study is that climate change isn’t just about warmer weather. It also brings with it more unpredictable and extreme weather events, which could make growing even these new crops risky. A heatwave here, a flood there, and suddenly, even the most promising crop might not make it to harvest.

Freshly picked strawberries in a harvest basket.

Extreme weather is already shaking things up for agriculture in the UK and beyond. From October 2022 to March 2024, the UK experienced its wettest 18 months on record, according to Yale Climate Connections. The UK’s House of Parliament warns that heavy rainfall and flooding over the past two years could mean smaller harvests of essentials like broccoli, cauliflower, potatoes, and carrots by 2025.

In fall 2024, the UK reported its second-worst harvest season ever, with crops like grapes, wheat, barley, and oilseed rape all experiencing declining yields because of flooding and drought.

So, what does all of this mean for British farmers and food lovers? On one hand, there’s potential for the UK to embrace new flavours and farming opportunities. On the other, farmers will need to adapt quickly to the unpredictable side of climate change. The study highlights the importance of future-proofing agriculture to balance these changes and ensure a sustainable food supply.

Study co-author Professor Rachel Warren of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA said: ‘Without such data, agricultural systems are likely to be ‘locked in’ to current crops, with adaptations failing to keep pace with climate change or relying on practices that exacerbate its impacts, such as heavy irrigation that would increase water scarcity.

‘Major changes to agricultural systems and diets can take decades to implement and so our long-term projections provide important information well ahead of time for farmers, supermarkets, researchers, policymakers and the public on the opportunities, challenges and trade-offs involved in adapting to the impacts of climate change.’

While the idea of sipping fresh orange juice from British-grown fruit sounds appealing, it’s also a reminder of the serious impacts climate change will have on our landscapes, traditions, and food systems.

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