China’s carbon dioxide emissions have been either flat or falling for 18 months, as renewable energy plants take a greater share of demand.
Solar and wind power generation grew by 46 per cent and 11 per cent respectively in the third quarter of this year.
China added 240GW of solar capacity in the first nine months, and 61GW of wind, putting it on track for another renewable record in 2025.
Last year, the country installed 333GW of solar power, more than the rest of the world put together.
The analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), for the science and climate policy website Carbon Brief, found China’s CO2 emissions were unchanged from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2025, thanks in part to declining emissions in the travel, cement and steel industries.
The findings come as global leaders gather in Brazil for Cop30. China’s president, Xi Jinping, did not attend the leaders summit at the UN climate conference, but the Chinese delegation are present for the talks.
UN Secretary General, António Guterres, said the world was facing a ‘moral failure and deadly negligence’ if governments failed to limit global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
André Corrêa do Lago, the Brazilian diplomat and president of Cop30, praised Chinese progress on green technologies.
‘China is coming up with solutions that are for everyone, not just China,’ he said. ‘Solar panels are cheaper, they’re so competitive that they are everywhere now. If you’re thinking of climate change, this is good.’
China’s dual carbon goals are peak emissions by 2030 and net neutrality by 2060.
In September, the country released its latest climate targets, to cut overall greenhouse gas emissions by between seven per cent and 10 per cent of their peak by 2035.
China is now focusing on its 15th five-year plan, which lays out the government’s priority and policies for the 2026-2030 period. The full text will be published next year but Chinese officials have hinted that low-carbon energy systems will be a major part of the plan.
