Global Temperatures Surpass Paris Agreement Threshold Over 12 Month Period For First Time

3 mins

European climate scientists have called the global temperature rise a ‘warning to humanity’

The average global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial revolution average over a 12-month period for the first time in history, according to new data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The readings were taken from  from February 2023 to January 2024 and represent 0.64°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.52°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average – representing profound consequences for all human endeavours say the agency.

Human-caused climate change — coupled with the El Niño weather pattern warming ocean surface waters in the Pacific — led to the record temperatures, say scientists.

‘It is a significant milestone to see the global mean temperature for a 12-month period exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures for the first time,’ said Matt Patterson, an atmospheric physicist from the University of Oxford.

yellow sky over a cityscape depicting heat wave

Overall 2023 had a global average temperature of 14.98°C, 0.17°C higher than the previous highest annual value in 2016.

2023 Warmest on Record

Dr Colin Morice is a Climate Monitoring and Research Scientist with the UK’s Met Office.

He said: ‘2023 is now confirmed as the warmest year on average over the globe in 174-years of observation. 2023 also set a series of monthly records, monthly global average temperatures having remained at record levels since June. Ocean surface temperatures have remained at record levels since April.

Not only is 2023 the warmest year on record, it is also the first year with all days over 1°C warmer than the pre-industrial period. Temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years.’ 

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S

‘Year-to-year variations sit on a background of around 1.25 °C warming in global average temperatures above pre-industrial levels. This warming is attributable to human-induced climate change through greenhouse gas emissions.’

And the first month of 2024 was also the hottest January worldwide since records began, with an average air surface temperature that was 0.70 degrees Celsius higher than the month’s average.

dry field affecting by rising global temperatures

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S said: ‘2023 was an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes. Not only is 2023 the warmest year on record, it is also the first year with all days over 1°C warmer than the pre-industrial period. Temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years.’ 

Global Temperature Check

The 2015 Paris Agreement goal for limiting global warming has the aim of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrialised levels, in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Exceeding the threshold over the course of a year does not mean it has been breached, as that target refers to the average global temperature over a span of decades.

Some scientists believe that the mark is no longer a realistic objective, and have encouraged governments to speed up the phasing out of fossil fuels in order to reduce emissions and limit warming.

Carlo Buontempo, Director of C3S added: ‘The extremes we have observed over the last few months provide a dramatic testimony of how far we now are from the climate in which our civilisation developed.

‘This has profound consequences for the Paris Agreement and all human endeavours. If we want to successfully manage our climate risk portfolio, we need to urgently decarbonise our economy whilst using climate data and knowledge to prepare for the future.’

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